Anatomy of a Trend

Trends are all around us

As an article in WGSN Mindset, from one of the world's leading trend forecasters, puts it: trends are all around us. We see them in what we eat, where we live and how we connect with each other. And whether we are aware of it or not, they dictate the products we want and the services we crave.

Smartphones. Co-working spaces. Green juice. We know the trends that define our daily lives. What we often fail to notice is how they connect. Co-working spaces grew to meet the needs of a new "creative class", while holding a green juice became a status symbol in a world where wellness carries more social weight than wealth.

Spotting one early

Mega trends last for years, or decades. By identifying trends before they reach critical mass, companies can tap into almost unlimited growth. To do so, they must:

1. Connect the dots between influences to identify the larger movement.
2. Filter it through their own brand DNA.
3. Act at the right time for their customers.

Getting forecasting right can make or break the largest companies of our time. Look at the classic example of Amazon. In less than two decades it grew from a small start-up trying to convince people to trust the internet, to one of the world's largest companies. From its roots in e-commerce to the launch of the Kindle and its investment in artificial intelligence, it boldly bet on trends, even when a short-term view suggested it was putting the company at risk.

The question that decides

So how do you forecast a trend? It is part art, part science, part maths and part magic. But identifying a trend is only the first step. The most important question to ask is: "Is this trend right for our brand, given our DNA and the people we serve?"

Timing matters too. Adopting a trend in the right way at the right time is, at best, an avenue for growth. At worst, it can cause the downfall of a brand. Being first is not always being best: it depends on the audience. If you are targeting early adopters, being first is key. If mass-market adoption is the goal, riding the crest of a trend could be the better move.

Still true

The trend of the moment is AI in every product. The same question applies: not "can we add it?" but "is it right for these people, now?